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NHL Game Result Algorithm 

February 2022

There are ways to predict a games outcome using past data and performance. While this​ specific algorithm was a bit naive and basic, it was still effective at predicting the outcomes of any matchup in the NHL during the 2021-2022 season. Using Microsoft Excel, I imported basic NHL data using Hockey Reference and created offensive and defensive statistical strength variables which would assist in my score projections. These strength variables were essentially created using the NHL averages. For example, the offensive strength variables were created using the total goals scored by that team thus far and the NHL average. For defensive strength, it was the same calculation however we used goals against. Then, to calculate a projected score, I used the VLOOKUP() function to take the offensive strength of the selected team and​ the defensive strength of the opposing team to create a number for projected total goals. Additionally, I utilized a Poisson Distribution formula to generate score probabilities in a table format. These scores ranged from 1-10 for each team and the table included percentages for each possible score within those restrictions.

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The Code

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