Should Padres Extend Juan Soto?

We all understand the greatness and impact of Juan Soto both on the field and off the field; considering jersey sales, ticket sales, marketing, etc. However, there are factors at play that warrant a lot of consideration before handing a blank check. I’ll break these factors down into different sections, starting with a brief analysis of Juan Soto’s production since his rookie season.

Career Overview:

To overview Soto’s resume at 24 years old: he is a 3-time All Star, 3-time Silver Slugger award winner, home run derby champion, batting champion, and World Series champion. With this resume being on a Hall of Fame trajectory, we can expect Soto’s first extension to reach record highs. However, let’s analyze his statistics from the past several seasons. Soto’s BABIP exceeded .310 in each of his first four seasons, peaking at .363 in a shortened 2020 season along with a .478 wOBA and 202 wRC+. Without holding too much stock in a shortened season, he still recorded a .332 BABIP in 2021 with a .420 wOBA and 164 wRC+. However, let's address some statistical drops the past few seasons. His xwOBA has dropped consistently from .475, .429, .401, and down to .397 respectively from 2020 to this current season. With that, his wOBA has dropped down to .381 this past season. In 2021, Soto recorded a 164 wRC+ that has since dropped to 146 the past two seasons. While these numbers are still good, it is important to address the decline. With that being said, he still has yet to finish a season with an OBP below .400. On top of that, his OPS remains to be in a good range despite a career low .778 last season. With an .888 OPS currently this season, he has surely bounced back offensively. What may be a cause for concern down the line is Soto’s defense. In 2020, he posted a -9 DRS which jumped to a 4 DRS in 2022. However, there has been consistent regression with a -2 DRS last season and even down to -4 this current season. These are surely below average numbers which is something to note in regards to contract negotiations. Furthermore, his UZR is not much better. He finished with a negative UZR his first three seasons, then jumping to a 3.1 in 2021. Since then, his UZR dropped down to -.3 and back up to .6. This is about average, but all of these numbers suggest that Soto is not a plus defender. 2021 seemed to be his best defensive season, which could be explained by the position he was playing. In all of his negative defensive seasons, he was playing LF. In 2021, his undoubtedly best defensive season, he was playing RF. He is certainly a better RF than he is LF, however San Diego just gave a huge extension to current RF, Fernando Tatis. This means they either need to address a position change for Tatis, or they pay Soto as a LF. To summarize, Soto is a plus hitter and a minus defender. His offense covers up his defensive woes, but we need to be mindful of the advanced statistical drops. His WAR remains to be in a good place, going from a 7.1 in 2021 to a 3.9 and 4.4 respectively the past two seasons. The defensive statistics explain why the WAR isn’t higher, but overall these are good numbers.

Projection:

Juan Soto has already engraved himself as a perennial star in this league at the age of 24. Historical data tells us that he has not even reached his prime yet, which is a major point of consideration. We can expect whatever woes he had thus far in his career whether it was his down (but still not bad) offensive season last season or his overall defensive woes to plateau as he reaches the age of 26 and on. We can already see progression from his 2022 season to this current season. His BA is up .18 points while his SLG and BABIP both jumped .36 points. Diving deeper into advanced statistics, Soto’s xBA of .266 and xSLG of .509 show that he is getting a bit unlucky at the plate this year as well. These expected numbers incorporate batted ball data that tell us how well the player is actually hitting the ball, which bodes well for Soto in our analysis. Also, disregarding the 2020 season because of the small sample size, his ISO (isolated power) is the second highest it’s been in his career thus far. This tells me his power has progressed and it is showing with his HR total already exceeding last years’ 27. His breakout season in terms of power is going to come very soon. It is fair to project that Soto’s best year has yet to come, and the progression we are currently seeing is promising toward this fact. In addition to these numbers, Soto’s hard hit percentage is the highest it’s been in his career (55.1%). To summarize, all of these numbers lead me to believe in an even better Juan Soto at the plate in the coming years. However, the defense seems to be average at best unless Soto goes back to RF. However, due to our current situation, we must pay Soto as a LF. While we saw where his WAR could be if playing RF (7.1 in 2021), we can’t expect his WAR to reach this with his current defensive capabilities at LF. Considering his current WAR sits at 4.4, with the notion that he will improve offensively, I will project his WAR to be roughly between the 5-6 range.

State of the Organization:

The organization must leave a door open for more spending if it means Juan Soto will be wearing the brown & gold for the next decade-plus or so, however let’s assess who San Diego's current assets are. Manny Machado is locked up through 2033 receiving $350 million, with the bulk of his contract yet to be paid. This past offseason they extended Fernando Tatis through 2034 ($340 million) and signed Xander Boegarts through 2033 ($280 million). With all of these contracts piled up, they currently have a payroll of $251 million roughly which is the third highest in MLB. What makes me highly concerned is that even with this much invested, they still missed the playoffs. Another question to ask ourselves is - what was the main issue for San Diego? Well, the offense was in the upper half of the league in terms of runs scored. As for the defense, we saw significant improvement with the 5th most DRS (40). As for the pitching, it was very efficient. 2nd lowest team ERA with Cy Young candidate Blake Snell leading the rotation. This leads to my next observation, which is that Blake Snell is going to become a free agent this offseason. Snell is likely going to demand 5-6 years at about $26 million or so AAV. This is another decision this organization must make. Another decision in regards to free agency is Josh Hader, who is also going to be a free agent this offseason. To me, this is a must keep for the Padres and can't afford to lose their star closer out of the bullpen. Overall, there's complicated decisions to be made for San Diego in terms of where to spend their money. Scott Boras is Soto's agent, who notoriously maximizes his client's paycheck better than anyone else. Using ZiPS contract projection at $8.5/WAR, Soto's AAV can be sitting at roughly $46 million. Additionally, with Soto seeking roughly 12 years, this would be the largest contract in MLB history of over $560 million. However, Soto will likely not accept a long term extension and wait until free agency. In my opinion, I think you keep Soto this year and see where the team is at the trade deadline. There will be two scenarios at that point; the ideal scenario is that the team is either in control of the division or in the playoff standings and you keep Soto for the remainder of the season and worry about his contract after the playoffs. The second, more realistic scenario, is that the team is struggling and battling for the last wild card spot - in which case you'd have to give up on the Soto experiment and see what teams have to offer for his services.